November 10, 2017 19:01 GMT by bleacherreport.com

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Green Bay Packers are 7-1 in their last eight Black and Blue battles with the Chicago Bears and 6-2 against the spread. But that was all done with Aaron Rodgers working his magic. Chicago now gets a shot at Green Bay without its star quarterback Sunday at home at Soldier Field.          NFL point spread: The Bears opened as three-point favorites; the total was 41 ea...

The Green Bay Packers are 7-1 in their last eight Black and Blue battles with the Chicago Bears and 6-2 against the spread. But that was all done with Aaron Rodgers working his magic. Chicago now gets a shot at Green Bay without its star quarterback Sunday at home at Soldier Field.

        

NFL point spread: The Bears opened as three-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.6-10.4 Bears (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

        

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers are a tough client to spin for at the moment, as they lug a three-game losing streak into Sunday. Last week, Green Bay, in its second full game without Rodgers, lost at home to Detroit 30-17.

The Packers fell down to the Lions 14-0 early and trailed 20-3 early in the fourth quarter. They pulled within 10 points at 20-10 but immediately gave up a big play on defense, leading to a Detroit score, and had no comeback.

In Week 7, Green Bay led a hot New Orleans outfit 17-16 early in the fourth quarter before giving up the final 10 points of the game. And just before that, the Packers only trailed 6-2 Minnesota 14-10 well into the third quarter before allowing the final nine points.

At 4-4 overall, Green Bay is in desperation mode, two games behind the first-place Vikings in the NFC North.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears won two games in a row, and covered three in a row, but lost a tough one in Week 8 at New Orleans 20-12. They then had last week off.

Chicago trailed the Saints 17-6 early in the fourth quarter then pulled within five at 17-12 with four minutes left. A long kickoff return following a New Orleans field goal gave the Bears life, but it ended on a Mitchell Trubisky interception with a minute to go.

Chicago outrushed the Saints 157-101. But the Bears got called for an offside penalty on a New Orleans field goal—which the Saints turned into a touchdown—settled for a short field goal after reaching the New Orleans 6-yard line, missed another field goal and had a touchdown catch by Zach Miller negated by a review.

In the end, that late New Orleans field goal also cost Chicago the cash as a seven-point underdog.

The Bears are a great bet at home as of late, going 8-1 ATS their last nine times out in front of the home crowd. They're also 3-1 ATS in Trubisky's four starts.

          

Smart pick

Chicago hasn't been favored over Green Bay since 2008, but this is probably the right spot. The Bears are improved, even if they're not getting great play at quarterback, and they're coming off their bye week.

The Packers, meanwhile, are working with half a playbook on offense, and their defense can't get off the field. The smart money here plays Chicago.

          

NFL betting trends

The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Bears.

The total has gone over in six of the Packers' last eight games against the Bears.

The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home.

     

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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