Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

They're not divisional rivals, but the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts have met each of the last three seasons, with Pittsburgh winning and covering all three games. Is there any reason to believe Sunday's match between the Steelers and Colts will play out any differently?         NFL point spread: The Steelers opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report) NFL be

They're not divisional rivals, but the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts have met each of the last three seasons, with Pittsburgh winning and covering all three games.

Is there any reason to believe Sunday's match between the Steelers and Colts will play out any differently?

       

NFL point spread: The Steelers opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.2-13.1 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

      

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers own a three-game winning streak after beating Detroit in Week 8, 20-15. Pittsburgh then enjoyed last week off.

The Steelers trailed the Lions at the half 12-10 but scored the first 10 points out of the locker room, the last seven on an electrifying 97-yard pitch-catch-run touchdown from Ben Roethlisberger to JuJu Smith-Schuster.

The Pittsburgh defense then did the rest, holding Detroit to just three points on two subsequent incursions deep into the Steelers red zone.

Pittsburgh got outgained by the Lions 482-392, but the Steelers defense did not allow a touchdown. Prior to that victory, Pittsburgh had outgained each of its previous four opponents.

At 6-2 overall, the Steelers lead the AFC North by 2.5 games over second-place Baltimore, and they also own the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff standings. Still, Pittsburgh's trails New England on the odds to win the AFC championship.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts just broke a three-game losing streak with a 20-14 victory at Houston in Week 9. Indianapolis took an early 7-0 lead on a 45-yard T.Y. Hilton touchdown connection from Jacoby Brissett and pushed that to 20-7 early in the fourth quarter. In the end, the Colts preserved their upset with a four-down stand from their own 7-yard line.

Indianapolis outgained the Texans 371-288. Brissett had his best game for his new team—throwing for 308 yards and two touchdowns without an interception—while the Colts defense allowed just one Houston offensive touchdown, which came with just six minutes left. The Texans' other score came on a fumble return in the second quarter.

Indianapolis has now outgained three of its last five opponents, going 3-2 ATS in the process.

The Colts are also 3-1 ATS at home this season, covering twice as home dogs.

         

Smart pick

Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis the last three seasons by an average score of 41-17. Sunday's game might not get that out of hand, but the smart money still probably sides with the Steelers.

        

NFL betting trends

The Steelers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against the Colts.

The Colts are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games after a win.

The total has gone under in seven of the Steelers' last eight games.

      

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.