Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Miami Dolphins are not known as road warriors, especially against quality opponents. Miami is just 1-10 its last 11 games on the road against teams with winning records. The 4-4 Dolphins will play as big underdogs when they visit the 6-3 Carolina Panthers on Monday night.                   NFL point spread: The Panthers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 39.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updat

The Miami Dolphins are not known as road warriors, especially against quality opponents. Miami is just 1-10 its last 11 games on the road against teams with winning records. The 4-4 Dolphins will play as big underdogs when they visit the 6-3 Carolina Panthers on Monday night.

                 

NFL point spread: The Panthers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 39.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.4-8.2 Panthers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins won three games in a row to reach 4-2 on the season, but they are now trying to stop a two-game losing skid following a 27-24 loss to Oakland last week. Miami led the Raiders well into the second quarter, but they fell down by two scores in the third and couldn't quite recover. Near the end, though, the Dolphins managed a late touchdown that gave them a push ATS as three-point 'dogs.

On the night Miami outgained Oakland 395-379, as quarterback Jay Cutler, back in action after missing the previous game with sore ribs, threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. But the Dolphins also missed an extra point, lost a fumble from the Raiders 24-yard line and came up empty on three other incursions inside Oakland territory.

At 4-4 overall Miami occupies the No. 7 spot in the AFC standings at the moment, just a game behind Tennessee, Jacksonville and Buffalo, who are all 5-3.

                

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers have won two straight, including a 20-17 decision over Atlanta last week. Carolina spotted the Falcons the first 10 points of the game but scored twice in the last two minutes of the second quarter to take a 14-10 lead into halftime. The Panthers added two field goals in the third quarter and hung on from there for the outright victory as three-point dogs.

On the day Carolina outrushed Atlanta 201-53 and won time of possession by a 33-27 tilt.

Two weeks ago the Panthers beat Tampa Bay 17-3, and just before that they lost a game to Chicago in which they didn't allow an offensive touchdown. So over the last three games the Carolina defense has allowed a total of two touchdowns and three field goals.

At 6-3 the Panthers trail first place New Orleans by a half game in the NFC South, and they own the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff standings.

                

Smart pick

Carolina's top-ranked defense should be enough to get the victory here, but the spread on this game seems inflated, especially when 17 points might be enough to win. Miami can play skittish, but the smart money here still takes the points.

                

NFL betting trends

The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Panthers.

The Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games at night.

The Dolphins are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games at night.

                 

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.